So the 2024 WRC season is now in the history books. Thierry Neuville is now champion, winning the title in Japan ahead of teammate Ott Tänak, and Toyota's Elfyn Evans. But were these three truly the fastest drivers this season? That’s what we are going to try and find out in this post, as we take a deep dive into the 2024 WRC season, without just looking at the results, instead looking at every stage each driver competed in!
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Before we dive in, let's break down how these numbers are determined! There are two key variables: Deficit to Ideal Time (measured in seconds per kilometer) and Percentage of Stages Completed with a Representative Time (expressed as a percentage). The first variable, Deficit to Ideal Time, reflects a driver's speed. It is calculated by comparing the driver's performance to the ideal pace, where the ideal pace is defined as a driver who won all the stages. Essentially, this shows how fast or slow a driver was throughout the season. The second variable, Percentage of Stages Completed with a Representative Time, relates to a driver's reliability. This percentage is based on the number of stages a driver completed within a competitive time relative to the total number of stages in the season, excluding super special stages (SSSs). A non-representative time might occur when a driver faces issues like mechanical problems, punctures, wrong tyre choices, or is simply cruising. To determine if a time is non-representative, it is compared to times from either the previous run of the stage or times from the same loop. If the time has a deficit of more than 160% of the previous pass or loop average, it is classified as non-representative. For this season, mechanical issues are taken into consideration, and don't hurt a driver's reliability/consistency score.
Rally Monte Carlo was the season opener as ever, and it was a battle between Neuville and Ogier for the win. Elfyn Evans was actually the leader early on, before falling behind on Saturday. Tänak went into a ditch after hitting a patch of ice and had to settle for 4th, being miles in front of M-Sport’s Adrien Fourmaux. Neuville won the rally and got maximum points, to claim the early lead in the championship. Sebastien Ogier had to settle for second on Sunday, not able to match the Belgian on the final day.
Rally Sweden saw Kalle Rovanperä return to the championship, but it wouldn’t be a happy comeback, as the Finn went off from the lead on SS4. He wasn’t the only one to go off in that stage, as Ott Tänak also went into a snowbank, and had to retire for the day. With a lot of fresh snow on the stages, the top two in the championship and thus the road order, struggled a lot. Neuville and Evans were 11th and 5th respectively at the end of Friday. It was Esapekka Lappi who was leading the rally, with Toyota’s Takamoto Katsuta in 2nd, just 3.2s behind the Hyundai driver. Katsuta would however go off the road, meaning that Lappi now had a massive 1 minute and 30-second lead over Adrien Fourmaux, who was on course for his first-ever podium, and he could cruise for the rest of the rally. Evans and Neuville bounced back on Saturday to occupy 3rd and 4th by the end of the day. Evans in particular was fighting Fourmaux for 2nd, a place that the Welshman would get by the end of the rally, as the M-Sport driver cruised on Sunday to secure his maiden podium. Lappi’s lead was so big that he could not be caught, winning his second-ever WRC Rally.
Thierry Neuville took maximum points in Monte-Carlo, and with that, the championship lead
Jaanus Ree / Red Bull Content Pool
A trip to Kenya was next for the crews. It was a miserable affair for Hyundai, with Esapekka Lappi retiring with a broken transmission on SS5, and Ott Tänak hit a rock which threw him into a bank and forced him to retire as well. Championship leader Thierry Neuville wasn’t immune to issues either, with the Belgian suffering punctures on Friday, and a fuel pump failure on Saturday. He would still finish in 5th and also claim a decent points total on Sunday. Kalle Rovanperä won, claiming Toyota's first win of the season, ahead of teammate Takamoto Katsuta, with Adrien Fourmaux getting a second podium of the season after Elfyn Evans’ puncture on Saturday.
Croatia saw the return of Sebastien Ogier to the championship, after missing the previous three rounds. Perhaps surprisingly, the Frenchman wasn’t in the fight for the win on the first two days, with Neuville and Evans, the top two in the championship going head to head for the rally win. Sensationally both of them would go off in the same corner on the first pass of the Zagorska Sela - Kumrovec stage on Sunday, handing the lead to Ogier. Neuville came off worse, losing his rear wing, and any chance at Sunday points. Further back, Tänak was in 4th, a long way behind his teammate, and Takamoto Katsuta completed the top 5, a minute behind the Estonian.
Adrien Fourmaux was the star of the season early on, with podiums in Sweden and Safari
@ World / Red Bull Content Pool
Toyota elected to run 4 cars in Portugal, with both Kalle Rovanperä and Sebastien Ogier competing in the rally. It was the latter who’d end the first day in the lead, with the Japanese manufacturer occupying the first three places at the end of Friday. However this dream start to the rally would become a nightmare, with Rovanperä going off the road on SS8, and Katsuta breaking his suspension on SS9. Ott Tänak briefly took the lead, before a puncture on SS13 made him drop to second. Sebastien Ogier now led the rally, a position that he’d stay in until the finish, winning his second rally on the bounce. But how about Evans and Neuville? The Belgian still finished on the podium, despite struggling with road cleaning on Friday. Evans was less fortunate. The Welshman was the slowest of the Rally1s in Portugal (bar Gregoire Munster), and also suffered a puncture on Friday and an overheated engine on Sunday, leaving him in 6th, with no Sunday points to his name.
A two-day format was used for Rally Sardegna, but there was still a lot of drama. Thierry Neuville went off the road from 3rd on Saturday, which dented his championship lead. The Belgian still won a maximum 12 points on Sunday, which was impressive considering he was first on the road for that leg’s stages. Ogier seemed destined to win his third rally in a row, but a puncture on the Power Stage gave the win to Ott Tänak, by a margin of just 0.2s! This was the first stage that Ogier did not manage to set a representative time in 2024! Evans was again off the pace, finishing in 4th place, behind Hyundai’s Dani Sordo.
Sebastien Ogier was only 0,2s away from winning three rallies in a row
Jaanus Ree / Red Bull Content Pool
Rally Poland returned to the WRC after a 7-year absence. A collision with a civilian vehicle during recce left Sebastien Ogier out of the rally, with Rovanperä taking his place on the final hour. Sensationally, the Finn would win the rally despite being the least prepared out of the Rally1 drivers. His main rival in Poland would be Andreas Mikkelsen, before a puncture on Sunday ruled him out of contention, and dropped him to 6th. Martins Sesks also made his debut with a hybrid-less Puma Rally1, setting eye-catching times on Friday, and finishing the rally in 5th. A freak collision with a deer would end any chance Ott Tänak had at a good result, with the Estonian missing most of Friday as a result. Thierry Neuville struggled from first on the road on day one, and ended the rally in 4th, quite a long way off Kalle. Evans by contrast was in 2nd, returning to the podium. In 3rd was M-Sport’s Adrien Fourmaux.
So at the mid-season point, here’s how everyone’s looking:
Sebastien Ogier is by far the most consistent, and also the fastest, along with teammate Kalle Rovanperä. However neither of those two were championship contenders at that point (Ogier would commit to a full second half after Finland), so let’s check out our full time drivers. Thierry Neuville is the fastest out of the three, marginally ahead of Tänak, with the Estonian being more consistent, thanks to Neuville’s off in Croatia and retirement in Sardinia. Tänak did retire in Safari and Sweden, but missed less stages compared to Neuville. Elfyn Evans is the most consistent out of the three, but also a lot slower compared to the Hyundai duo.
Outside of the title contenders, Esapekka Lappi and Kalle Rovanperä find themselves in the “fast but unreliable” part of the graph, EP mostly he only competed in 2 rallies, setting mostly unrepresentative times after Taka’s DNF in Sweden, and Kalle because he retired from half of his entered rallies. Adrien Fourmaux is the fastest of the full-time M-Sport Ford drivers (Gregoire Munster was slower than 1 s/km, so he didn’t make the graph), also being more consistent than Katsuta. Mikkelsen leaves a lot to be desired, but he was as fast as Kalle before his puncture in Poland. But on tarmac, he was close to 1 s/km slower than the ideal pace.
The inaugural WRC Rally Latvia saw Toyota again run 4 cars to help them in their bid to retain their Constructors Championship crown. Thierry Neuville struggled immensely on the loose roads on day 1, even more so this time, as parts of the stages were one-pass only, meaning Neuville had more sweeping to do. Neuville would effectively have a bad road position for all of the rally, ending it outside the top 5. Evans also struggled, and could only manage 5th in the end. The two part-time Toyotas were the ones who were leading, with Kalle Rovanperä in first and Sebastien Ogier in 2nd. Local hero Martins Sesks, this time with hybrid, again set the world alight, winning two stages on Friday, and holding 3rd place until the last stage of the rally. There, a differential problem robbed him of a podium in only his second event in a Rally1, elevating Ott Tänak to 3rd.
Rally Finland would prove crucial for the championship. Rain neutralized the road cleaning effect, meaning everyone was on a relatively equal road position on Friday. The streak of great results Ott Tänak had since Rally Portugal came to an end, after the Estonian went off the road and rolled into a tree, severely damaging his i20 Rally1. He couldn't restart on Saturday and left Finland empty handed. Sami Pajari who was making his Rally1 debut driving a Yaris Rally1, had a mixed Friday, losing his rear wing on SS2, but also setting the fastest time in the second pass through Ruuhimaki. Championship leader Thierry Neuville didn't make the most of Friday, with an overshoot costing him a lot of time, and dropping him behind the likes of Ogier and Evans. The Welshman would suffer differential problems on Saturday, losing a lot of time, with that not being the end of his problems, as he would go off the road and retire on Sunday as well. That meant that both of Neuville's title challengers would leave Finland with zero points added to their tally. Kalle Rovanperä dominated the rally and seemed destined to claim his first win on home soil, but disaster struck on the penultimate stage, where the Finn hit a rock and rolled out of the rally. That handed the win to Sebastien Ogier, with Neuville the biggest benefactor in 2nd, and Adrien Fourmaux grabbing another podium in 3rd.
Sebastien Ogier's win in Finland propelled him right into the championship fight
Jaanus Ree / Red Bull Content Pool
The Acropolis Rally was undoubtedly the roughest rally of the season, with no rain before the event making the stages the roughest they've been in a long time. The Toyotas suffered in the demanding Greek stages, with Elfyn Evans suffering a turbo failure on Friday morning, and Takamoto Katsuta ripping the suspension off his Yaris Rally1. Sebastien Ogier was in the lead of the rally, before a puncture and the same turbo issue that had also hit Evans undid all of his hard work, and dropped him to 4th, 2 and a half minutes off Ott Tänak. The Estonian wouldn't stay in first for long, with a double puncture on the first stage of Saturday ending any chance he had at a good result. Now Dani Sordo was leading the rally, before he too suffered a puncture and conceded the lead to his teammate Thierry Neuville. Neuville had been criticized by Sebastien Ogier after Friday, claiming that the Belgian was too slow and that he should stop complaining about the road cleaning effect, something that he too had experienced back in his championship-winning days, and admittedly treated similarly. His mind games would backfire on Sunday, when he rolled in the Power Stage and lost out on 12 precious points. Evans also rolled on Saturday, thus ending any realistic chance he had at the title. Ogier's roll gave Neuville a big gap in the Championship Standings and also gave Hyundai their second-ever 1-2-3 finish.
Chile saw both Sami Pajari and Martins Sesks compete in Rally1 cars. Pajari’s chance came after Toyota benched Takamoto Katsuta for this event, in hopes that he would regain some consistency, after suffering multiple crashes in the previous events. Sesks’ rally wouldn’t be as rosy as his Poland and Latvia outings, with the Latvian hitting a bank and suffering a double puncture on SS3, which would rule him out for the remainder of Friday. Sebastien Ogier hit the same bank and got a puncture, which dropped him to 15th place. The rally would not get better for the Frenchman, because on Saturday he hit a rock which broke his suspension, causing his retirement. Up front, Elfyn Evans was leading the rally, a return to better fortunes for the Welshman. But in the foggy conditions of Saturday, Kalle Rovanpera would snatch the lead away from his teammate, and he wouldn’t lose it. So a 1-2 for Toyota, with the Hyundai pair of Tänak and Neuville in 3rd and 4th respectively. Adrien Fourmaux finished 5th, which could’ve been a lot higher if it wasn’t for a mechanical issue with his Puma, which made the Frenchman receive a one-minute penalty on Friday.
Neuville's win in Acropolis came alongside a Hyundai 1-2-3
Picture from the Acropolis Rally website
A return to Europe and tarmac was next, with the crews traveling to the countries of Czechia, Germany and Austria for the Central European Rally. Neuville could’ve clinched the championship on this rally if he outscored teammate Ott Tänak. Early on it seemed that the Belgian would do just that, leading the rally after Friday's stages. However, two mistakes just a kilometer apart on Saturday, cost the Hyundai driver dear, relegating him to 4th. Sebastien Ogier was now the rally leader, closely followed by Ott Tänak. On Sunday, Ogier’s miserable streak would continue, with the Toyota driver first spinning and losing 10 seconds, thus severely hurting him on the “Super Sunday” standings, and then the Frenchman crashed out of the rally from 2nd. That elevated Tänak to first, with Evans and Neuville rounding up the podium in 2nd and 3rd. Ogier wasn’t the only driver to go off in CER, as Sami Pajari also crashed on Sunday, and Hyundai’s Andreas Mikkelsen would go off the road from 6th on SS5. CER also saw Katsuta return, with the Japanese driver performing brilliantly on Sunday, earning maximum points for the Power Stage and “Super Sunday” standings.
So heading to the finale in Rally Japan, the title was between Neuville and Tänak. Neuville held the upper hand with a 25 point lead to his Estonian teammate. There, things wouldn't pan out as expected for the Belgian. Neuville suffered a turbo failure from 3rd on Friday, meaning he found himself outside the points paying positions, and 7 minutes behind Tänak, who was in the lead of the rally. Neuville bounced back on Saturday, to return to the top 10. Any chance Ott Tänak had at the driver's championship vanished, when the Estonian crashed out of from the lead of the rally on Sunday. That meant that Neuville was the WRC champion for the first time in his career. Elfyn Evans got the win, his first of the season, with teammate Ogier in 2nd, with the 8-times champion suffering a puncture on Pirelli's farewell on Friday. Adrien Fourmaux rounded up the podium, his 5th of the year.
Neuville won his first ever championship in Rally Japan
Jaanus Ree / Red Bull Content Pool
So in the end, here's how our final stats look like:
Faded driver pictures are their position in the chart after Rally Poland
As you can see, some things are different compared to the first half of the season. Thierry Neuville became slightly slower on the second half of the year, but became much more reliable, which is to be expected, as the Belgian was managing his championship lead. As for Ott Tänak, the Estonian actually became less consistent on the second half, that's mostly a reflection of his DNF in Finland where he retired on Stage 2, but also one of his crash in the finale in Japan. Elfyn Evans remains at the same levels as before the mid-season point, but teammate Sebastien Ogier became less consistent on the second half, enduring a disastrous second half of the season.
Adrien Fourmaux is again relatively the same as the first half, becoming slightly faster. Katsuta finds himself in the fast but unreliable part of the graph, after suffering multiple retirements on the second half, including similar incidents in Acropolis and Finland. Kalle Rovanpera's part time season became better, with the Finn becoming a lot more consistent on the fast gravel rallies. Gregoire Munster still finds himself outside the graph as he was more than a second per kilometre, but atleast the Luxembourger improved on his first half of the season.
Hyundai's part timers are a mixed bag. Mikkelsen finds himself as the only driver on the slow and unreliable part of the graph, crashing out from both CER and Japan. Lappi's season also became worse, with the Finn becoming a lot less slower on the second half, whilst still being unreliable. Sordo became faster, after a great performance in Acropolis, but the Spaniard did not set a competitive time on Sunday, which in turn hurts him from a reliability standpoint, as he competed in just 3 events.
As for Pajari and Sesks, the Finn showed promise in his first outings in a Rally1. Some growing pains still need to be ironed out however, with the WRC2 champion losing his rear wing in Finland and rolling on Sunday in CER. Sesks' performance in Latvia was remarkable, but his one in Chile was a lot more tricky for him, retiring on Friday, and also suffering a lot in the fog.
But how about each surface separately?
As you can see, Neuville was the fastest man on tarmac, with Ogier the only one close to Belgian. Elfyn Evans is close behind, but he is the most consistent out of everyone. Tarmac is also the surface where Katsuta is the most consistent in. On rough gravel, Tänak is the fastest out of the full time drivers, fractionally ahead of Ogier in terms of pure pace. Evans is surprisingly the second slowest Rally1 on that surface! On fast gravel and snow, Kalle Rovanpera is by far the fastest driver, with Sebastien Ogier behind him. Neuville is the most consistent driver on that surface, but he is slower than his pace on tarmac and rough gravel. Katsuta and Fourmaux have similar pace, but the M-Sport driver is a lot more consistent than the Japanese driver, hence why Fourmaux got 3 podiums on that surface to Taka's zero. Tänak's retirements in Finland and Sweden must haunt the Estonian, as he is the least consistent in what is his best surface!
So in the end, Thierry Neuville is the 2024 driver's champion, being the driver who had the greatest combo of pace and consistency, (and also rounds entered). If I were to highlight what his main championship rivals lacked in 2024, for Tänak it would be his crashes in Sweden, Finland and Japan, and for Elfyn Evans it would be his poor performance on rough gravel. Ogier, just had a disastrous second half of the season, with many uncharacteristic mistakes. Let's see what the rallying gods have in store for us in 2025!
Written by Dimitris Theodorou
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